Publications | Emerging Energy-Saving Technologies and Practices

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

E.1 CONTEXT, OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE

This report profiles emerging technologies and practices for the buildings sector in North America. The report is the result of an extensive collaborative study directed by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) and involving government, utility, research institution and consulting personnel in the U.S. and Canada. This is the third assessment of emerging technologies and practices conducted in the past decade and builds on the experience and methodology refined under the two previous studies.

The scope of this study has been enhanced to reflect the interests of some of the collaborative sponsors and participants, which specifically has translated into reporting at the following levels of differentiation: i) a U.S. market perspective, ii) a Canadian market perspective; and iii) a California-specific focus. This document consolidates the results of the U.S. and Canadian perspectives into one report. The core report is referred to as the ACEEE version. Clearly integrated into the core report are the results of the Canadian specific analysis.

The concept of assessing emerging technologies (e.g., a new air conditioner) and practices (e.g., improved air conditioner installation procedures) for the buildings sector is driven by the need to effectively inform policy, program and research functions in government, utilities and the private sector to identify the best candidates for program development or for further technical development.

The adoption of emerging technologies and practices (T&Ps) is key for continuing to improve energy efficiency in the buildings sector while maintaining economic growth. This is a dynamic process in which T&Ps increase their market share and consequently, over time, evolve from newly adopted T&Ps to become mature T&Ps with significant market saturation. Fortunately, innovators continue to stay “ahead of the curve” and, indeed, introduce new T&Ps more rapidly than the market can assimilate them. Some have greater potential than others, so periodic, systematic evaluations of emerging T&Ps serve to identify the best candidates for program development.

The objectives of this study are:  

  • To identify new research and demonstration projects that could help advance high-priority emerging technologies; and
  • To identify potential new technologies and practices for market transformation activities.

The analysis covers T&Ps applicable to the buildings sector in both the residential and commercial sectors. We define “emerging technologies and practices” (“T&Ps”) as those which either: (a) are not yet commercialized but we judge to be likely to be commercialized and cost-effective to a significant proportion of end-users (on a life-cycle cost basis) by 2009; or (b) are commercialized, but currently have penetrated no more than 2 percent of the appropriate target market.
E.2 METHOD EMPLOYED

This study generated detailed profiles for 72 emerging T&Ps out of a possible candidate list of 198 measures. The method used to generate these profiles comprised the following steps:
Step 1: Develop Initial Measure Lists

Candidate T&Ps were taken from lists of emerging technologies developed for the 1998 study; existing databases and reports resident in the current study team files; recommendations from energy research organizations, major utility R&D departments, and state and provincial R&D institutions; recent conference proceedings; consultations with experts; and product and research announcements.
Step 2: Preliminary Sorting Of Measures Into Priority Categories

Low potential measures are those that are likely to have a cost of saved energy greater than current U.S. national average energy prices, or that can reduce U.S. and Canadian buildings energy use by less than 0.25 percent. High potential measures are likely to have a cost of saved energy less than 50 percent of current U.S. national average energy prices, and that can reduce U.S. or Canadian buildings energy use by 0.50 percent or more. Medium potential measures were neither “high” nor “low” potential, or measures for which little is known, so further analysis is needed.
Step 3: Selection Of Measures For Detailed Analysis

Seventy-two candidates were selected for detailed analysis as likely medium- and high-priority emerging technologies.
Step 4: Detailed Data Collection and T&P Profile Development

The T&P profiles report on the following categories: the Market, the Base Case, New Measure Information, Savings Information, Cost, Likelihood of Success, Recommended Next Steps, and Notes translating into 30 input parameters. Data was obtained in order to complete the 30 inputs in an EXCEL spreadsheet database. Based on these values, as well as a review of published literature on each measure and telephone conversations with researchers and manufacturers working on the different measures, written descriptions on each measure and their status and prospects were prepared (the T&P profiles).

A key quantitative output and indicator supporting the analysis and selection of priority T&Ps is the Cost of Saved Energy (CSE) which is defined as the levelized cost of a measure over its lifetime per unit of energy saved. It is calculated by assuming each measure is financed with a loan, with a term equal to the measure life and an interest rate equal to the discount rate, and dividing the annual loan payments by the annual energy savings. The CSE calculations are based on future mature measure cost estimates. The U.S. analysis uses a 5 percent real discount rate, where 5 percent is a figure commonly used by electric utilities for energy-saving analyses. The Canadian analysis uses a 10% real discount rate.

A second key quantitative output is the macro-market impact analysis. A spreadsheet model was developed to project market penetration and resultant energy efficiency improvements according to each T&P. A Canadian macro-market impact analysis was developed in addition to the U.S. market assessment.

A key qualitative output and indicator supporting the analysis and selection of priority T&Ps is the rating according to “likelihood of success”. T&Ps were rated by the team according to the following criteria on a 5-point scale: 1 = very difficult to succeed; 2 = be hard to succeed; 3 = moderate chance of success; 4 = good chance of success; 5 = excellent chance of success; barriers appear to be clearly surmountable.
Step 5: Selection of High Priority Measures


All of the 72 T&Ps were rated according to 3 quantitative and qualitative values: potential market level energy savings, economic performance (cost of saved energy), and likelihood of success. The high priority measures show potential energy savings of at least 1 percent of projected residential and commercial energy consumption in 2020; a cost of saved energy less than half of current retail energy prices; and a likelihood of success rating of 3 or more.
Step 6: Comparison to Prior Emerging Technologies Studies

Many of the measures examined in the 1993 and 1998 ACEEE reports were re-examined in this study. For these measures we compared our findings with our expectations from prior work in order to see which technologies fared as well as expected, which fared better and which fared worse. In addition, for the 1998 high priority technologies that are not included in this study (which is the case if they now have more than a 2 percent market share or if their commercialization date is delayed beyond 2010), we looked at their current status in relation to our expectations.
Step 7: Summary of Related Canadian R&D Efforts

This step refers to the inclusion in the T&P profiles of a Canadian R,D&D situation assessment for buildings T&Ps. Observations are presented at the outset of each category of T&P, not at the level of individual T&Ps. In addition, where pertinent, some of the individual T&P profiles include specific observations unique to the Canadian context. The main source for these observations is information gleaned from a recent applications round to the NRCan Office of Energy Research and Development (OERD) for funding support of technology development under the auspices of the “Technology & Innovation” initiative.
Step 8: Estimate of Macro Market Impact in Canada


The macro market assessment for Canada included the same T&Ps used for the North American assessment. Three measures were dropped from the analysis, as was done for the ACEEE version:  

  • L2: Self-Commissioning Photosensors (combined with L5)
  • S6: Commercial Cool Roofs (dropped, over 2% market share today)
  • S7: Integrated Window/Wall Systems (dropped, no current work on technology)

Some measures targeted specifically at climates in the southern United States were found to have very little potential in Canada. These measures were not omitted from the analysis, but were instead included in the model and assigned an applicability level of zero.

A database was developed of all the macro drivers to calculate the market impact of the technologies. For each technology, these drivers included the following:  

  • Sector (commercial or residential) and building segments (e.g., office, retail, single-family dwellings, etc.) to which the technology would apply
  • End-uses affected by the technology
  • Energy used for those end-uses within the applicable building segments
  • Fuel shares, specifically the allocation between electricity and non-electric fuels for the heating and domestic hot water end uses
  • Applicability of the technology to each segment, e.g., the technical limitation on application of the technology
  • Current penetration of the technology
  • Potential penetration of the technology by the end of the study period.

The Canadian macro-market analysis includes energy savings and associated greenhouse gas emission reductions expressed as savings in the target year, 2020 relative to a “Business As Usual” base case projection of energy use.

The savings percentage and the factors that account for technical applicability and penetration are applied to the projected “Business As Usual” annual energy consumption for 2020. The total savings presented in the results section are projected energy savings in that target year. They are not accumulated savings.
E.3 RESULTS

Seventy-two T&Ps were studied in detail. Table ES-1 indicates the distribution of these T&Ps according to the categories of “high,” “medium,” “lower,” “special,” and “not a priority”, based on 3 quantitative and qualitative values: potential market level energy savings, economic performance (cost of saved energy), and likelihood of success.

The report documents the U.S. and Canadian macro assessment results separately. The Canadian results are summarized here.

The T&Ps with the greatest potential represent a variety of measure types, from changes in design practice to changes in technology. Changes in design practice offer the largest potential because the savings cut across all end uses, and because of the large number of buildings to which they can be applied. The large impact T&Ps also cut across energy end-uses as significant savings are available from advances in lighting, HVAC systems, motors, and appliances.

The top ten T&Ps, ranked according to macro-market energy savings, are as follows:
#1, PR3, Integrated Commercial Building Design LEED Level (30% > Code)

This T&P could save up to 176 PJ in the Canadian commercial sector by 2020. The greatest potential would be in offices (private and public) and retail buildings, because these segments represent the largest percentage of floor space in this sector.
#2, PR2, Ultra Low Energy Commercial Building Designs (50% > Code)

This T&P would generate significant savings for reasons very similar to those stated under PR1 but the savings per facility would be higher. As with PR3, offices and retail buildings represent the greatest potential.
#3, S1, High Insulation Technology (HIT) Windows (U<0.25)

HIT windows can save up to 20% of the energy used for heating and cooling residences and are technically applicable to any new homes from single family to apartments. Regionally, the greatest savings will occur where winters are the most severe, because nearly 85% of the energy savings are from space heating.
#4, D1, Advanced Appliance Motors

These motors can save up to 60% of the energy used by conventional motors and can be applied to all commercial pumps and to 20%-25% of residential appliances. The greatest potential is in the appliances used in single-family homes.

#5, H20, Advanced Condensing Boilers

These boilers can save up to 33% of the energy used by conventional boilers and they are applicable in all commercial buildings with hydronic systems. The greatest potential exists in offices and retails, because they represent the largest floor space with hydronic systems, but schools and health care facilities also offer large potential.
#6, L15, Scotopic Lighting

This T&P offers significant potential because lighting energy can be reduced by up to 30% in all commercial fluorescent lighting to which the technology is applied. The greatest potential is in offices and retail facilities, because of the large floor space in those categories.
#7, R1, Solid State Refrigeration (Cool Chips™)


This T&P offers a large potential because it could save up to 40% of the energy used for refrigeration and could apply to all commercial and residential refrigeration. The greatest potential is with refrigeration in single-family homes.
#8, W1, Condensing Water Heaters

This T&P offers a large potential because it could save up to 29% of the energy used for domestic hot water in all single-family and mobile homes with non-electric water heating. The greatest potential is in single-family detached homes, because they represent the largest number of dwelling units.
#9, A1, 1-watt Standby Power for Appliances

This T&P offers a large potential because it could save up to 60% of the standby power in all residential appliances and electronic equipment that have standby power. Penetration could be up to 100% of those appliances by 2020.
#10, L14, One-Lamp Linear Fluorescent Fixtures with High Performance Lamps

This T&P offers significant potential because it could save up to 42% of the lighting energy in all fluorescent lighting in offices, schools, and healthcare facilities.
Recommendations and Next Steps for Canada

The Canadian macro-economic analysis leads to the following set of recommended high priority measures, as listed in Exhibit E.2.


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